SECOND EDITION · BFCM 2025 DATA

The 2026 BFCM
Direct Mail Benchmark Report
for Ecommerce Brands

As far as we know, still the only BFCM direct mail report built on holdout-tested data.

Explore the findings
↓

Real transactional data from thousands of brands. Holdout-tested wherever possible.

Paper collage of BFCM direct mail benchmarks, featuring a 3.89 times incremental return
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Four numbers to plan
BFCM 2026 around.

Holdout-tested wherever possible, reported at the median. It’s the most conservative way to show what mail actually drove.

THE BIG NUMBER
3.89
×

Spend-weighted iROAS

Across measured BFCM campaigns in every vertical, retargeting and retention combined.

See performance ↗
AUTOMATION WINS
1.5 - 1.7
×

Higher incremental performance

Than comparable one-off campaigns, plus 1.9× the incremental conversion lift per recipient.

See automation ↗
RETENTION
7.65
×

Peak median iROAS, 46–60 days after a purchase

Medians peaked at 7.09–7.65× in the 31–60 day window, and positive returns held for customers who last bought more than two years ago.

See recency ↗
COMMITMENT PAYS
97
%

Of $50k+/month brands saw positive returns

The highest median iROAS of any tier: +127% vs. the $1k–$5k entry tier.

See spend tiers ↗
PERFORMANCE

Direct mail’s overall BFCM performance.

Every digital message has a half-life rarely longer than the flick of a thumb. A mailer has to be held, looked at and dealt with. Here’s what that’s worth at each funnel stage, Oct 1–Nov 20, 2025.

Retargeting

INCREMENTAL ROAS

1.09×
25th percentile
2.77×
Median
5.64×
75th percentile
Median incremental revenue per recipient: $1.82

Retention

INCREMENTAL ROAS

1.52×
25th percentile
3.30×
Median
6.98×
75th percentile
Median incremental revenue per recipient: $2.01
THE STANDOUT PLAY

MailMatch™ more than doubled the retargeting median.

MailMatch™ reaches a physical address with an email alone - helping turn abandoned carts and checkouts into first purchases.

Cart & checkout retargeting

5.92×

MEDIAN ROAS

All retargeting

2.77×

Cart & checkout / MailMatch™

5.92×

Median incremental return on ad spend

Welcome flow extension

Time one or more postcards to land after your email and SMS welcome series ends.

Fair Harbor ↗
3.09×+ iROAS

Abandoned cart

Nudge almost-buyers at the end of your abandoned cart series with a postcard (or two).

Mugsy ↗
16.26× iROAS

Abandoned checkout

Target shoppers who filled out shipping info but left before paying.

TravelPro ↗
15×+ ROAS
RETENTION

Strong early returns. Long-lasting opportunity.

Median retention returns by days since last order, from 15 days to two years+. Recency is the strongest predictor of repurchase, but “lapsed” goes a lot further back than most brands think.

Retention median incremental ROAS by days since last order: 5.66x at 15–30 days, peaking at 7.65x at 46–60 days, remaining 3.12x at 636–730 days, and 1.87x after two years.

Median incremental ROAS by days since last order. Report, pp. 18–19.

TAKEAWAYS

Win the second purchase.

Trigger mail 15–60 days after a purchase. Median iROAS peaked at 7.09–7.65× in the 31–60 day window.

Keep “lapsed” customers in play.

Median iROAS stayed above 2.6× through day 730. Customers gone more than two years still returned 1.87×.

AUTOMATION

The power of automation.

Automated campaigns outperformed comparable one-off sends.

1.5–1.7
×

The incremental performance

of comparable one-off campaigns.

1.9
×

The incremental conversion lift

per recipient, compared with one-off campaigns.

Triggered by an abandoned cart, signup or purchase timing. Mail arrives at the right moment in the customer journey.

Automate before the season.

Set programs up in October. Pre-build creative and swap it in late November for the BFCM to post-BFCM switch.

Catch the winback window.

The 15–60 day sweet spot from Chapter 02 becomes a trigger, so every new buyer gets mail on time.

Don’t turn it off in December.

The clearest automation dividend came after BFCM. Automated programs kept earning while everyone else went home.

SPEND TIERS

Brands that send more mail make more money.

Higher monthly mail spend was associated with higher median iROAS. Here’s how each tier compared with the $1k–$5k baseline.

MEDIAN iROAS LIFT VS. THE $1K–$5K TIER
$1k–$5k
Baseline
$5k–$10k
+27%
$10k–$25k
+64%
$25k–$50k
+82%
$50k+
+127%
97%

of brands spending $50k+/month saw positive incremental returns.

97 in every 100 brands spending $50k+/month saw positive incremental returns

RECIPIENTS VS. NON-RECIPIENTS

Same audiences. Same campaigns. More revenue.

The strictest comparison in the report: a randomized group held out of every send, compared with identical customers who got the mail.

+14.5
%

Revenue per customer

With a randomized group held out of every send, mail recipients generated 14.5% more revenue than identical customers who got nothing.

+3.9
%

And their orders were bigger

Higher AOV for mail recipients across all buyers we observed over the season. The mailer arrives carrying an offer, a bundle, or a product story that shapes what goes in the cart.

CREATIVE

Discounts, formats, and more.

Three creative decisions with a measurable edge over BFCM.

WANT TO SUPERSIZE THAT?
+31
%

incremental revenue per piece

6×9 postcards beat 4×6 at the median, with a 21% higher median incremental return. When in doubt, size up.

+21%
higher median incremental return
Carousel artwork comparing a smaller gray 4 by 6 postcard with a larger blue 6 by 9 postcard, annotated 31 percent more revenue
PERCENTS MAKE MORE SENSE
+25
%

Higher median incremental return

Percent-off beat dollar-off among campaigns with a classified discount, plus a 9% edge in revenue per piece. A percentage scales with the cart; a dollar figure reads as a cap.

+9%
more incremental revenue per piece
Carousel graphic comparing dollar-off and percent-off coupons, with a 25 percent higher median incremental return annotation
BRAND STORIES

Success stories with direct mail.

Twelve brands across prospecting, retargeting and retention. iROAS results are incremental. ROAS and ROI are shown as each case study reported them.

*Individual case studies are distinct from the aggregate BFCM benchmarks.
Explore all PostPilot case studies ↗
LIKE WHAT YOU SEE?

Get SEEN this BFCM.

Turn these benchmarks into your next campaign. PostPilot handles strategy, design, printing and mailing. Let’s build your BFCM plan.

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A NOTE ON THE NUMBERS

Holdout-tested. Medians, not means.

This second edition analyzes PostPilot customer campaigns mailed October 1–November 20, 2025. Results are incremental and based on holdout testing wherever possible; most distributions use medians. The 3.89× headline is spend-weighted. Results vary by brand, audience and campaign.

Not every metric is holdout-tested: case studies use each brand’s reported metric.